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Everybody doing it, doing it, doing it is . Making sales predictions for Warhammer that is.

In the spirit of the upcoming Season of WAR, I’ll have a go with my own predictions of Warhammer Online sales success. Now bear in mind that I am something of an optimist, even if I am a bit of a cynic at times. Hmmm. A cynical optimist — how odd.

First, I’ll restate the predictions made by Tobold, Syncaine, and Rick.

Tobold: 1,000,000 to 2,000,000 copies sold by the end of 2008.
Syncaine: 1,500,000 to 3,000,000 by 2009. Qualified.
Rick: 1,000,000 copies sold in 2008, growing to 1,600,000 maximum.
All up I think that those are pretty solid, safe numbers. At least at the low end.

That Age of Conan sold (or was that shipped) over 750,000 units by the end of the first month showed that MMORPG players are ready for something new. The failure of Funcom to release a game that was solid and polished for all available levels does not negate that fact. I believe that Warhammer, being less of a mature rated game and targeted to a wider audience, will do marginally to moderately better than Age of Conan.

Here are the factors that I’m basing this prediction on.
warhammer gold,warhammer online gold,warhammer power leveling,warhammer powerleveling,Buy WAR gold,Buy warhammer gold,Buy warhammer online goldThe most important factor. When the NDA is lifted and the game goes into Open Beta, the reports coming out are at least positive about the game. If the reports that the beta testers make are glowing, that could add a reasonable multiplier to the number of units sold.
World of Warcraft currently has 11 million subscribers. But these folks haven’t all been subscribed since 2004. There’d have to be millions of ex-players. Some of those will be looking for a new experience and will at least give WAR a go.
The system requirements for Warhammer are not so steep as to prevent players with older computers joining in.
Some players are feeling burned by some recent releases (AoC, TR, Vanguard.) A portion of this group will wait until they can see how the launch and first month go.
There will be a large group of players that will buy the game at launch regardless.
There have been a large number of preorders already.
Warhammer seems to be better anticipated for longer than Age of Conan was.
I have no qualifications for making sales predictions.
With no further ado, my Warhammer Online sales predictions, based on a smooth launch and reasonably polished content, are:

Warhammer Online will sell between 800,000 and 1,200,000 copies at launch and in the first month. I haven’t seen any preorder figures yet, but since the CE has been sold out for a while now, my guess is that the numbers are pretty big. Don’t forget EA is behind this, they have a lot of purchasing power and can produce a lot of boxes for launch.
Sales will then continue at a steady pace until late November with around 300,000 to 500,000 units sold. With the September launch, a lot of potential subscribers will be watching to see how it all goes. If the first month goes smoothly, a lot of these folks will buy the game.
Toward the end of November, the Christmas shopping season begins. There will be a decent jump in sales as boxes are bought as presents. Subscriptions might not kick in until after the holiday. I’d expect at least 500,000 to 800,000 be sold during this period. Especially if the game is getting good reviews.
So, all up before the end of 2008, I’d expect somewhere between 1.6 to 2.5 million copies of Warhammer Online to be sold.

Of course, that all depends on the quality of the launch and the level of polish the developers have achieved for the game. If Warhammer Online gets rave reviews after release, and by the hints coming out from the closed beta, I suspect this might be the case, then my estimates are reasonable. If pre and post-release the game gets glowing reviews, sales could easily be double these estimates.

Finally, there are always a number of players who cancel before the end of the first month. Either they feel the game isn’t for them, or they don’t like it for other reasons, but there are always a few. I don’t actually have any historical data for other MMORPG for this so I’m taking a wild guess here, but I figure around 20 percent will cancel before the first month.

It’s your turn. What’s your prediction for WAR?